My article on the ICTY, the Vukovar Three, and the Balkans is up at The American Interest. Here’s the crux of the article’s relevance to things going on today:

Whatever the reasons, the Court’s policy is ill-conceived. It has cost the West credibility in the region. Serbia has already interpreted the West’s lack of resolve as a fundamental weakness and will likely attempt to extract maximum advantage over Kosovo. After all, Serbia rejected the Rambouillet agreement in 1999 and commenced cleansing Albanians from Kosovo in large part because a similar strategy in Bosnia was ultimately vindicated at Dayton. Furthermore, the question of Republika Srpska within the framework of Bosnia still remains an open sore. Serbia’s determination to eventually annex the territory is not likely to wane. It has already thumbed its nose at the West by threatening to call for a referendum on national self-determination within Bosnia.

I’ll try to get a link up to the whole article within the next few days. Bear with me.