Steve Jobs thinks the Kindle will be a flop:

“It doesn’t matter how good or bad the product is, the fact is that people don’t read anymore,” he said. “Forty percent of the people in the U.S. read one book or less last year. The whole conception is flawed at the top because people don’t read anymore.”

Is this classic Jobsian downplay of an idea before Apple unleashes its own competitor?¹ Methinks yes, because even if people don’t read books any more, they at least do read the scads of content on the internet. Add to that persistent rumors of Apple working on some sort of tablet device, and I’m thinking we might be seeing some sort of Kindle-killer in the next 12 months.

My guess is that Apple will forego e-Ink in favor of a high DPI LCD, like the one in the iPhone but much bigger. It won’t be as legible as e-Ink and will eat batteries more quickly, but it will be in color and won’t have the dreadful refresh problems that e-Ink suffers from. It’ll have to have some sort of unlimited cellular data plan as well as Wi-Fi, allowing you to access internet content wherever you are. And it’ll support eBooks if you choose to read them.

Predicting Apple’s moves is a wretched Kremlinology, but I feel fairly confident that Steve Jobs will surprise us all with a game-changer in this general space.