Cold Hard Truth
The New York Times reports:
Peter Feith, the European Union’s special representative to Kosovo, said in an interview this month that the European Union was determined not to allow partition to become a political reality, and would work to ensure that Kosovo remained a multiethnic country in which both groups lived side by side. The European Union is soon to take over administration of Kosovo from the United Nations.
But many senior European Union officials admit privately that if the Serbs continue to push for partition, there is little the European Union can do to prevent it.
This, then, becomes yet one more example of Serbia’s uncanny ability to game the international system. The strategy has been consistent throughout the Balkan wars: create demographic facts on the ground to match your territorial objectives and then merely wait for the world to catch up with reality.
In both Bosnia and Kosovo, the end result may very well be Serbia annexing territories with majority Serb populations, majorities it created by starting expansionist wars. The bitter irony is that the only country to have escaped this fate is Croatia, a country whose military victory over Serbian irredentism is currently on trial at the Hague.
I don’t understand this posting? What do you mean by demographic facts of Serbia in Kosovo and it’s objectives. They are a 10% minority in that area.
The bottom line with the Kosovo/Kosova mess is, if you partition a sovereign state, and create a new smaller state out of it, the state being partitioned has to agree to it.
Since Serbia hasn’t and a new state has been partitioned of of it’s territory. Then obviously a new state can also be partitioned out of Kosova without Kosova having to agree to it.
The point of my post is that the only way to achieve your goals in international relations is to ensure that facts on the ground match your stated territorial goals. Once you have demographic facts on your side, there’s no power in the world that will contest your claim to land.
I reject your argument from reciprocity, though. Who cares about consistency in international relations? IR has always been a question of what you can get away with. Serbian politicians understand this very well.
Damir,
Albanians wanted to cut off all ties with Serbs and Serbia and they succeeded. Now, if Serbs who still live in Kosovo want to cut off all ties with Albanians and Kosovo, why would they be stopped?
It’s interesting that they are splitting now and putting up borders but hoping to join the EU, take the borders down, and live in one big community again.
SAVO HELETA Author of “Not My Turn to Die: Memoirs of a Broken Childhood in Bosnia” http://savoheleta.livejournal.com
Savo,
Why would they or why should they? I don’t think they will be stopped, but I think they probably should be.
As a Bosnian Serb, do you think Republika Sprska should be allowed to secede from Bosnia?
Damir, I’m not saying that Serbs should secede from Kosovo, but that if they attempt, it will be hard to prevent them as a precedent was set.
Why would they? Well, politics, history, manipulation by the leaders, propaganda, people not thinking with their heads but with their blood (Nelson Mandela said this about the people from the Balkans) - these are the reasons for conflict, wars, and rebellion in the Balkans and around the world.
When it comes to Bosnia, I don’t think anyone will seriously think about secession. In my opinion, all these calls for referendums and secession are just attempts by politicians to increase their popularity among the confused and angry voters who were told this (Kosovo independence)would never happen.
I personally would love to see Bosnia joining the EU. I hope the politicians in Bosnia on all sides -and people who elect them- will soon start thinking about the future, the economy, and less about divisions and differences.
SAVO HELETA Author of “Not My Turn to Die: Memoirs of a Broken Childhood in Bosnia” http://savoheleta.livejournal.com
Savo, I agree that it will be hard to prevent it, but not because a precedent was set. It will be hard to prevent because the West doesn’t seem to have the stomach for a physical confrontation with Serbia and Russia over this.
I’m not sure why people are so hung up over the precedent thing. The United States invaded Iraq in an unprecedented manner—does this mean that the world will now start to condone invasions? Does the U.S. support for Kosovo mean that they implicitly support Kurdistan’s right to self-determination in Iraq? Russia itself actively helps foment instability in Abkhazia and South Ossetia—and we’re supposed to believe their concern about precedents being set?
I hope you’re right about Bosnia. Being of Croatian origin (from Zadar), my main reason for qualms over Kosovo’s independence is Bosnia’s stability. Bosnia on the road to EU integration is the only sensible way forward for the entire region.