I usually give neoconservatives the benefit of the doubt and assume that they don’t actually believe the strong form of democratic peace theory—namely that armed conflict between democracies is somehow impossible.

But sometimes I’m proved wrong. Case in point, Jackson Diehl is disappointed in the Iranian Greens:

Ataollah Mohajerani, who has been a spokesman in Europe for presidential candidate-turned-dissident Mehdi Karroubi, came to Washington to address the annual conference of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The mostly pro-Israel crowd was primed to cheer what they expected would be a harsh condemnation of Ahmadinejad and his bellicose rhetoric, and a promise of change by the green coalition.

What they heard, instead, was a speech that started with a rehashing of U.S. involvement in the 1953 coup in Tehran and went on to echo much of Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric about the United States and the nuclear program.

Neoconservatives do recognize that even if the Palestinians had a perfectly representative government, they’d continue fighting against Israel, right? They recognize that there are certain wars, like wars over territory, which are not affected by the political systems of the warring parties, right? Right…?

I continue to believe they’re not complete ideologues, despite frequent evidence to the contrary.

A post-euphoric New York Times tells it like it is:

While administration officials maintain that the intelligence estimate does not mean that the United States and its allies should ease the pressure, the practical consequence of the report has been to embolden Iran. It has also made it more likely that China and Russia, two of the countries with perhaps the smallest appetite for sanctions against Iran, will not agree to a new round of tough sanctions by the United Nations Security Council.

A de-fanged Cheney means the world goes about its business. The world’s business is not to lie down prostrate, but rather to counterbalance U.S. global dominance.

Yay?

Hank in the Post, a voice of reason?

I have long argued that America owes it to itself to explore fully the possibility of normalizing relations with Iran. We do not need to tranquilize ourselves to the danger in order to pursue a more peaceful world. What is required is a specific vision linking assurances for Iran’s security and respect for its identity with an Iranian foreign policy compatible with the existing order in the Middle East. But it must also generate an analysis of the strategy to be pursued should Iran, in the end, choose ideology over reconciliation.

Kissinger’s not been treated kindly by history for his Vietnam policy, and his rumored advice over Iraq to Bush Jr. doesn’t sound like it was too sagacious either. Nevertheless, this op-ed is right on: Iran policy does not end with the NIE. (And the politicization of intelligence has been disastrous for this country.)

Podhoretz over at Commentary’s blog on the new NIE assessments:

In other words, a full two years after Iran supposedly called a halt to its nuclear program, the intelligence community was still as sure as it ever is about anything that Iran was determined to build a nuclear arsenal. Why then should we believe it when it now tells us, and with the same “high confidence,” that Iran had already called a halt to its nuclear-weapons program in 2003?

Or why should we believe anyone? Pynchon’s proverbs for paranoids, #3:

If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don’t have to worry about answers.

(I know I’m abusing Pynchon here.)

Kevin Drum, as usual, has the pithiest take on today’s bombshell NIE release:

I guess Cheney finally lost his turf battle on this one. … I wonder who pushed back? Who’s got the juice?

Indeed, this is the most important part of today’s revelations: not that the intelligence community has undercut the Bush Administration’s rationale for war with Iran, but rather that Cheney’s lost a doozie of an administrative battle in having these documents released to the public. I don’t place hope in war being averted due to a lack of a proper slam dunk casus beli. It’s certainly not stopped this administration before. Only a properly de-fanged Cheney will keep us out of trouble for the next year.