Matt thinks the main price of Kosovo’s independence will be paid by the Georgians as Russia retaliates by establishing mini-states in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Well, maybe and maybe not.¹ I don’t think that Russia would waste such a winning hand in a fit of pique over Kosovo. It’s far more likely that they’ll agitate over Georgia when it suits the West least. As I’ve written before, Russia doesn’t much care for consistency in the international system, nor does it actually care about their Serbian “brothers”. It’s all about power politics and establishing spheres of influence in its near-abroad.

It does make Georgia’s bid for NATO membership far more problematic, and brings John McCain’s severe hawkishness into relief. Is he willing to say that the U.S. would commit troops to Georgia to ensure its territorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression?