According to a Russian newspaper report, Mr Putin lost his temper with Mr Bush at a meeting on the final day of the Bucharest summit, telling him: “Do you understand, George, that Ukraine is not even a state.” Claiming that most of Ukraine’s territory was “given away” by Russia, Mr Putin supposedly also said that if the country joined NATO it would “cease to exist”.

So many of my “Russia hand” friends tell me that Russia’s leadership is made up of mafioso goons who nevertheless clearly understand the profit motive above all else. “These people can be bargained with.” Undoubtedly this is true in many cases, but I think most people underestimate nationalistic pride and raw power hunger when they talk about Russia. Russia is far more likely to behave like a 19th century Great Power bully than as a responsible stakeholder in some 21st century post-national global order.

This is not to say that Putin’s point is completely unfounded on its merits—the West treating Ukraine like some inviolable, monolithic entity is a recipe for disaster. But it should be a heads-up to all Western strategists that Russia will not be likely to compromise in any constructive way when it comes to talking about Ukraine’s future.